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BLUE
(65.7.129.191) on 8/19/2008 - 1:30 p.m. says: ( 218 views
, 1 likes
)
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"Uh - HUH!! See edited 11:00 am discussion attached ;-) ...." |
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CONTEXT ADDED BY ADMIN: END OF CONTEXT
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 A (EDITED BY BLUE) NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER... THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN... AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER... THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR THE GEORGIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR GEORGIA. Please bear in mind however that.....this consensus track is completely different from all of the models and projected paths at 5:00 am this morning . In fact, it bears NO resemblance at all to the projected paths or consensus track published at 11:00 last night. Furthermore, if you had made any plans based on the published models yesterday morning, you may as well have been just pissing into the wind (50 - 60 MPH) since it gave completely opposite and divergent track up the west coast. We (Should) counsel you to realize that our consensus path may be (80% probability) completely changed once again at our next forecast since we really don't know Jack S**t about where this storm might actually headed even tough we announce it with the upmost sincerity and authority. In a related matter, it should be noted that in a highly scientific experiment, we had a room full of monkeys draw random lines all over the State of Florida and their accuracy was actually calculated to be 35 percentage points over the accuracy of the Consensus and similar models published by NOAA (35% VS. 0%). Also, next hurricane season, NOAA will be attempting to broadcast from Monkey Jungle in the attempt improve our accuracy. $$ ** Forecaster BLUE **
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"Honestly, we've played a lot better teams than them," Florida defensive end Jarvis Moss said. "I could name four or five teams in the SEC that could probably compete with them and play the same type of game we did against them." |
Uh - HUH!! See edited 11:00 am discussion attached ;-) .... BLUE 8/19/2008 - 1:30 p.m.
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