Since everything fans beat their chests about….undefeated seasons, “national titles”, winning percentage, top tier bowls, etc is all affected by the strength of the opponents they play, let’s take a look at the top 20 teams in overall winning percentage and compare them.  There are some huge differences in the toughness of the opponents different teams have played over the years.

• The only outlier is Miami of Ohio which I will ignore.  They played very very few games against the other top 20 teams-certainly not enough to skew the overall numbers.

• Rankings listed here are only how a program compares to the other 18 listed, not all of college football

• All data from CFDW

Observations:

1)      Notice who is most likely to hang an “L” on you even if you’re good.  Now notice who is most widely recognized for having the most MNC’s/prestige.  Notice anything?  The teams most likely to beat good teams are the ones which are almost universally recognized for having the most MNC’s. That’s no coincidence.

2)      Large differences between a team’s overall winning percentage and winning percentage vs good teams show who has benefitted from playing a weaker schedule….and who has been harmed by playing a tougher schedule.  The Delta winning percentage particularly shows this….if there is a large delta it means that team has benefitted from playing weaker opponents

3)      Pay particular attention to the percent of games against other top 20 opponents in overall winning percentage.  This shows us how tough your schedules really were.

MICHIGAN

Total Games played = 1232

Overall Winning percentage = 73.45%

Rank = #1

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 208

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 56.25%

Rank = #5

Delta Winning percentage = -17.20%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 16.88%

Rank = #13

Conclusions: easy schedules.  More than half of all games vs other top 20 programs have been vs Ohio State.  Still, the delta in the winning percentage is moderate.  They’re not an easy out historically

NOTRE DAME

Total Games played = 1182

Overall Winning percentage = 73.27%

Rank = #2

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 242

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 59.71%

Rank = #1

Delta Winning percentage = -13.56%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 20.47%

Rank = #11

Conclusion: moderate to easy schedules, but they do beat good teams at a very high rate slightly edging out Bama.  As much crap as they catch for their schedules, others have been easier.

TEXAS

Total Games played = 1212

Overall Winning percentage = 71.73%

Rank = #3

Total Games vs historic top 20  = 196

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 57.91%

Rank = #3

Delta Winning percentage = -13.82%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 16.17%

Rank = #14

Conclusion: Their schedule has been cake but at least when they do play good teams they beat them at a pretty high rate. 

OKLAHOMA

Total Games played =  1169

Overall Winning percentage = 71.70%

Rank = #4

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 240

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 46.67%

Rank - #14

Delta Winning percentage = -25.03%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 29.53%

Rank = #10

Conclusion: moderate to easy schedule and a very large difference in performance vs good teams and the rest. 

OHIO STATE

Total Games played = 1181

Overall Winning percentage = 71.59%

Rank = #5

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 201

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 47.51%

Rank = #13

Delta Winning percentage = -24.08%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 17.02%

Rank = #12

Conclusions another very large difference in performance vs good teams and the rest.  Easy schedules have again helped a lot.

ALABAMA

Total Games played = 1164

Overall Winning percentage = 70.75%

Rank = #6

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 430

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 59.42%

Rank = #2

Delta Winning percentage = -11.33%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 36.94%

Rank #2

Conclusion: Just extremely impressive.  Very tough schedules overall and yet Alabama just beats good teams anyway.  This is the 2^nd most likely program to beat other good opponents and the gap between them and ND is very slight….but their schedules are significantly harder. 

USC

Total Games played = 1134

Overall Winning percentage = 70.50%

Rank = #7

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 274

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 57.12%

Rank = #4

Delta Winning percentage = -13.08%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 24.16%

Rank = #9

Conclusions: Reasonably good schedules and they beat good teams at a good clip.  They deserve their blue blood status.

NEBRASKA

Total Games played = 1233

Overall Winning percentage = 70.13%

Rank = #8

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 199

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 47.74%

Rank = #13

Delta Winning percentage = -22.39%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 16.14%

Rank = #15

Conclusions: Easy schedules overall have helped a lot and there is a large difference in performance vs good opponents and the rest. 

TENNESSEE

Total Games played = 1183

Overall Winning percentage = 68.99%

Rank = #9

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 293

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 49.32%

Rank = #7

Delta Winning percentage = -19.67%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 24.77%

Rank = #8

Conclusions reasonably good schedules overall but they have struggled more often than their overall winning percentage would suggest when faced by better opponents.

PENN STATE

Total Games played = 1219

Overall Winning percentage = 68.94%

Rank = #10

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 134

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 48.51%

Rank = #10

Delta Winning percentage = -20.43%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 10.99%

Rank = #17

Conclusions simply put one of the easiest schedules of any top shelf program.  They do not perform nearly as well against good teams.

fsu

Total Games played = 712

Overall Winning percentage = 66.36%

Rank = #11

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 223

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 48.65%

Rank = #9

Delta Winning percentage = -17.71%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 31.32%

Rank = #5

Conclusions Good schedules, definitely better than most.  There is a moderate difference in how they perform against good opponents vs the rest.

GEORGIA

Total Games played = 1188

Overall Winning percentage = 64.36%

Rank = #12

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 379

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 48.15%

Rank = #11

Delta Winning percentage = -16.21%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 31.90%

Rank = #4

Conclusions definitely tough schedules. Only a moderate difference in how they perform against good opponents vs overall.

LSU

Total Games played = 1157

Overall Winning percentage = 64.32%

Rank = #13

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 305

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 44.10%

Rank = #16

Delta Winning percentage = -20.22%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 26.36%

Rank = #7

Conclusions: pretty good schedules but a fairly large difference in performance vs good opponents and the rest

miami

Total Games played = 899

Overall Winning percentage = 63.35%

Rank = #14

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 266

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 46.62%

Rank = #15

Delta Winning percentage = -16.73%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 29.59%

Rank = #6

Conclusions Tough schedule and a moderate difference in performance vs good teams and the rest

AUBURN

Total Games played = 1157

Overall Winning percentage = 63.17%

Rank = #15

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 422

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 48.93%

Rank = #8

Delta Winning percentage = -14.24%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 36.47%

Rank = #3

Conclusions Utterly brutal schedules.  Brutal.  Low delta vs how they perform against good opponents and the rest.  This is a better program than many realize.

FLORIDA

Total Games played = 1081

Overall Winning percentage = 63.09%

Rank = #16

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 431

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 50.35%

Rank = #6

Delta Winning percentage = -12.74%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 39.877%

Rank = #1

Conclusions THE most brutal schedule in America and its not close – not even remotely close.  One of the lowest delta’s in America between performance vs good teams and the rest.

WASHINGTON

Total Games played = 1126

Overall Winning percentage = 61.33%

Rank = #18

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 169

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 36.98%

Rank = #18

Delta Winning percentage = -24.35%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 15.01%

Rank #16

Conclusions easy schedules and a big difference in performance vs good opponents and everybody else.

ARIZONA STATE

Total Games played = 931

Overall Winning percentage = 61.10%

Rank = #17

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 81

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 37.04%

Rank

Delta Winning percentage = -24.06%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 8.70%

Rank = #18

Conclusions ridiculously easy schedules and this program has not performed nearly as well when faced by tougher opponents

VA TECH

Total Games played = 1156

Overall Winning percentage = 60.73%

Rank = #20

Total Games vs historic top 20 = 92

Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 36.96%

Rank = #19

Delta Winning percentage = -23.77%

Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 7.96%

Rank #19

Conclusions: here we have it.  THE easiest schedule of any program in the top 20 and a large difference in performance vs good teams vs everybody else.

Overall Conclusions :It’s a whole lot easier to avoid losing ballgames when you don’t play as many games against teams more likely to beat you.