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This is not a fire Muschamp post. I think he should get at least another year because he has built a championship level defense, he has recruited well (with some offensive talent on the way), and I think injuries have probably derailed what he wanted to do some this year. I think Green, who had started 20 games, being out caused a shuffle along the o-line that has not been optimal for the unit as a whole. I don't think Jones fully recovered from his viral infection to be the 4th quarter pound the rock back that Muschamp thought he had in place. Easley's injury has weakened the center of the defense. And I think Debose would have contributed as a kick returner/ stretch receiver. The team also lost Driskel (who also missed some of camp). Murphy has been an able caretaker but is not the answer at QB.
The question I have is the Muschamp style viable enough to win championships as football moves to a more offensive game with rules that favor the offense. Will he be able to get the personnel to play how he wants and is it even a good stategy to have when your recruiting base is Florida. I know the response will be 11-2, 11-2 he went 11-2. The big picture is that he is 22-10. Shouldn't UF have more speed on offense, speed kills on that side of the ball also.
I think Muschamp's style is obviously to play agressive physical defense. There is nothing wrong with that. He also wants to shorten games, limit possessions, and strangle opponents with his defense but also with an offense that controls the ball and the clock. There is no spread, there is no up tempo in the Muschamp way (at least he has not shown a willingness to go in that direction). He wants a physical O-line and he wants a slew of big backs that can move the chains. He has said that Florida's recruiting advantage will allow him to get the athletes to dominate the LOS and play his style. The SEC is a LOS league. There is a lot of Saban influence here and who can argue with what Alabama has been able to do. UF's defense has faced the fewest snaps in the nation. What has UF done with all the extra possession- sat on the ball, 50th in offensive plays.
In the LSU game, Muschamp got just about everything he wanted. Florida controlled the ball for 34:11 of the game, LSU was limited to running only 56 plays on offense, UF did not turn the ball over. What he did not get was a good enough running game (Jones was out early). UF ran 16 times on first down for only 62 yards. UF also was called closely in the secondary whenever the DBs put their hands on an LSU receiver, 2 pass interference calls. And some disipline issues. UF also had no splash plays on offense or defense. Still it was a one score game in the 4th quarter. If you hold LSU to 17 points you probably would like your chances.
Actually, 20 Points is a key number. Score 20 points and your odds of winning are pretty good. Hold your opponent under 20 points and the odds are even greater.
From 1990 to right now UF has played 300 football games under 4 different coaches. Overall, UF is 232-67-1 for a winning percentage of .775. UF has held opponents under 20 points in 184 of those games 300 games and has a record of 175-9 when they do so. The problem for Muschamp is that his teams already have 4 of those 9 losses. The good news is Muschamp's defense has held teams under 20 points in 21 of his 32 games or 65.6%. Of course that is a lower percentage of games than under Meyer and only nominally better than the Spurrier era when under the shadow of the fun 'n gun defenses held opponents under 20 points 60% of the time and went 89-1 in those games.
In the last 300 games the Gators have had 57 games where they have scored 20 or less points. The Gator record is 19-38 in those games. I should note here that there is some overlap since there are games where both teams score 20 or under. Anyway, Meyer was 4-9, Zook was 4-9, and Spurrier was 8-11. Muschamp is already 3-9, 12 out of 32 games he coached UF has scored 20 or fewer points. Muschamp is 3-4 when both teams score under 20 points. This has not been a winning style so far. UF is not winning low scoring games under Muschamp at the rate previous coaches won these types of games. The 3 previous coaches have a better winning percentage when holding teams under 20 points, and a better record when UF scores under 20 points. Two of the coaches were pretty successful in all the games but even Zook fares better in low scoring games. Zook 17-2 defense under 20 and 4-9 offense under 20. Muschamp is 17-4 and 3-9.
What's more important a great head coach or a great quarterback? Do you need both to win big?
Some other notes: Football Outsiders ranks college teams by a stat that combines success rate on plays, points per play, drive efficiency, and adjusts for opponent and "garbage time".
UF rankings on defense; 2013- 1 (prior to LSU game), 2012- 4, 2011- 35, 2010- 28, 2009- 1, 2008- 3, 2007- 38, 2006- 3, and 2005- 19.
The same rankings on offense; 2013- 69, 2012- 28, 2011- 33, 2010- 50, 2009- 9, 2008- 1, 2007- 1, 2006- 7, and 2005-23.
I would say defense is on the right track and the offense was too until this season (injuries).
Forth quarter magic, last year the Gators had it and this year not so much. Again depth on the o-line and Jones might be the factors here. So far UF has outscored opponents only 26-17 in the 4th quarter. Last year it was 128-32. When UF needed it against Miami and LSU the 4th quarter was a draw.
I would have to say I liked what I saw out of Taylor running the ball vs LSU (not so much in a few cases he was needed for blocking protection). He seemed to have a gear and the ability to cut that Jones and Brown do not have. Brown is steady and can get to some holes but he doesn't have a top gear at all. Jones is a good physical runner with more speed but was never really at 100% this year.
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