The Vols are going to beat Florida's meat.

You know, it probably is easier for Florida to win, than it is for Tennessee to fix whatever problems has caused them to struggle over the past month.

Florida may have played weaker teams. Florida may have problems at quarterback now. Florida may have pass-protection problems. Florida may have problems in short-yardage situations and they may also have problems in the redzone. Florida may even have misrepresented statistics that may begin to look more genuine starting tomorrow.

At the same time, Florida arguably has an easier shot at improving whatever they are, the good things and the bad things.

Take all of Florida's problems and Tennessee has the same types of problems, except worse.

Florida may have offensive problems, but Tennesse won't?

What is more likely? And this is all simultaneous mind you: That Florida gets worse in all the areas they looked good in AND Tennessee gets better in all the areas they look bad in. Oh yeah, and Florida stays bad in all the areas they are currently bad in.

Maybe those things happen and maybe it's too much for us, but it's all on them.

If Tennessee is able to turn it around in one game, I will be impressed; extremely impressed. And I fully expect them to come out on fire; I fully expect their players to be jacked up. I also do not expect that to mean a 30-point first half. I do not think that Tennessee is a team who does that on their own.

What will likely happen is that Florida goes three-and-out on their first couple of series. What will likely happen is that Tennessee scores points in their first couple of series. That is what eleven years of frustration and being in your own house buys you, IMO.

I do not think any team can sustain that kind of emotional high for 60 minutes though. We are all familiar with games where a team looks like its on its way to winning 70-0, but the game ends up being more competitive. There are even recent examples of this.

Is Tennessee a team who can look like they're on their way to winning 70-0? I've thought about this and I think their best case scenario is a 10-point lead. I think if Tennessee scores 24 points, it will a blowout victory for them, an offensive production analogous to what Louisville did last week; it would be their equivalent.

Last year, Tennessee came into our game 17th in the nation in rushing offense, 8th in the nation in total offense, and 13th in the nation in scoring offense. (We came in barely beating Kentucky 14-9 LOL). They were clicking and we still held them to 27 points. Seriously, what is their version of a blowout with the offense they have this year? If everything goes their way, I think Tennessee scores 17-24 points. Anything beyond 28 points and the wheels have come off for Florida.

And that may be enough to win.

But I think even if everything goes Tennessee's way, Florida will be right there. Florida ran for 101 yards against UMass, in the rain, for the first game of the season. We ran for ~250 yards for our next two games, trending slightly upwards. That stat would be good enough for 18th in the nation in rushing and defending the run is among Tennessee's weaknesses right now. And none of our running backs are the 5'8" 160 lbs variety anymore. They are legit bruisers.

If the game started getting out of hand, Florida has the running backs to slow it down until, you know, the opening momentum starts to die, which is why I do not see anything more than a 10-point lead (Florida is 10th in the nation in time of possession at +35 minutes; UTk is 84th).

...a fact that absolutely takes the pressure off Austin Appleby.

I can see the defensive coaches for Tennessee blitzing and crowding the line to start the game, forcing Appleby to beat them. In theory, making the new QB beat you is the way to go, but injuries and depth have made that strategy not sustainable for the Vols. In other words, Florida can totally afford to just run the ball, take their 3-and-outs, mixing in some play-action, until Tennessee loses some of that octane and/or gets burned for a quick strike to Callaway.

Tennessee just does not strike me as a team who translate their angst into a top-shelf defense right now and Florida can afford to be patient.... especially with a kicker who can hit 50-yarders; and especially with our defense.

When I look at this objectively, Florida has too many advantages and Tennessee has much more to correct, much more to compensate for, for this to be the game everyone wants it to be.

There is very little pressure on Florida to come up with the game of the century right now, which is why they're acting very loose. Tennessee players, on the other hand, they know they need to put together something they haven't really done all year.

Florida 31, Tennessee 14.