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Clockwork Orange Doubletree Resident (76.205.128.33) on 1/19/2017 - 9:20 a.m. says: ( 225 views , 7 likes )

"These surveys did not "oversample""

Edited by Author at 1/19/2017 - 9:21 a.m.
Message Replied To ==========

Yeh..about those *stellar* approval ratings

ABC / WaPo polls use "oversamples" to goal seek and weight strong Obama approval ratings..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-18/new-abc-wapo-poll-uses-oversamples-goal-seek-strong-obama-approval-rating==============================

I suspect neither you nor the author at Zerohedge knows what "oversample" means.

This survey was done with random digit dialing, and the 8% gap between democrats and republicans is a result of that sampling procedure, not the target of it. There is no weighting or oversampling done to achieve those numbers. Not only that but it's shown 23% (+/-2%) republicans through random digit dialing every month for a year straight.

Registered voter numbers are stale and absolutely do NOT capture which party people identify with NOW. Randomized surveys attempt to capture that and have captured it quite consistently at around an 8% gap between Ds and Rs. This doesn't capture who people voted for, nor does it capture how the independents lean. It's not supposed to.

Of course they aren't perfect, but polling services are constantly trying to improve their procceses for accuracy and these surveys will continue to be the best measure of current sentiment in the US population. And for this survey, that's all they are supposed to do. There's no conspiracy here, just opinions and statistics.

But you and Zerohedge can stock up on these if you prefer.

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