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1. I'll jump right in and repeat what is an annual complaint - the NCAA needs to reseed the teams once the Final 8 are set. For 3-seed UF to have to play 6-seed TCU in their opening round game is flat wrong. It completely discounts UF's season long body of work and co-winning the SEC (probably nation's best baseball conference) regular season crown. To be consistent with the way the Regionals and Super Regionals are set up, higher national seeds should have to play the lower ranked unseeded teams in the opening round. If you go by the national seeding UF and TCU meeting first means the 2nd and 4th best teams in the Final 8 are playing each other to open. That's not right. If the teams were reseeded as they should be 1-seed Oregon State should draw previously unranked Texas A&M. Florida should draw the next lowest ranked team in the field - 20th ranked Cal St. Fullerton. 4-seed LSU would get 16th ranked FSU, which is the only opening round game that would fall in line with proper reseeding. And 6-seed TCU would get 7-seed Louisville. Why is this so difficult to do? As an aside if they did meet, have you noticed how similar UF and Fullerton's "F" logo baseball caps are?
2. Oregon State is clearly the prohibitive favorite with a great all around team, but LSU is trending up big time. OSU, LSU and UF have the best starting three pitchers to head up a staff in the tournament, but LSU's Alex Lange and Jared Pouche are very experienced veterans with a bunch of NCAA tournament games pitched. Their batting line up hits well from 1-9 and their fielding is even a tick better than Florida's this season. Lots of power and speed in the line up to complement, too. They are my pick to win it if I had to lay my own money.
3. FSU getting into the CWS is a hell of an accomplishment for veteran coach Mike Martin. His career at FSU is clearly coming to a close soon, but getting to Omaha with this team might be one of his best coaching years. Make no mistake, this is probably the least talented team he will have ever taken to Omaha. No phase of the team or position player pops out as really special, just a combination of good players peeking right now. Their team defense is weak and has been for the past few seasons under Martin. And I must mention their big bopper Quincy Neporte might just be the slooooooowest player in the history of college baseball. If you watched them against Sam Houston State you would have seen him get thrown out at home plate trying to score from third... wait for it... on a high chopping ground ball hit very deep to the second baseman on a non-force tag play at the plate. I've never seen it happen in my life. And then a little later in the game he did one better, he got thrown out by at least ten steps on the way to first on a 5-4-3 TRIPLE PLAY around the horn. He had just gotten to the 3-foot-wide run lane box going to first when the ball got to the first baseman.
4. Outstanding pitching and team defense are clearly the calling card of Florida's success and the reason why the Gators are still alive. But, defensively this team is not quite as talented as some of O'Sullivan's previous Omaha teams. Dalton Guthrie is outstanding at short and makes highlight play after highlight play. But I think Richie Martin and Nolan Fontana were a little steadier inning to inning. There's a significant drop off at first base with the JJ Schwarz and Christian Hicks platoon. Neither is terribly athletic and have a hard time fielding balls or throws not on direct line to them. India is solid but not spectacular. Rivera has always been amazing behind the plate, but I think his previous hand injury has hampered him. His arm down to second this year hasn't seemed as lethal as his first two seasons. Outfield defense has been very good, but we are really missing the gazelle that was Buddy Reed in center. Horvath and Larson can run down some balls, but Reed's speed could really save runs. It would be nice to have that kind of center field athleticism in a huge ballpark like Omaha's TD Waterhouse Field. Florida's defense will really need to tighten up more if they are going to make a deep run. Infield throws to first have to get better. Too many errors are being made on those throws and pick plays at first.
5. Starting pitchers Alex Faedo and Brady Singer appear to be back on stride and are pitching excellent as of late. I'm very confident they can hold up against any lineup UF will face in Omaha. In the few innings they had against hard-hitting Wake Forest, they pretty much out-classed the Deacons who had a team batting average well over .300 and led the country in homers coming in. Louisville, LSU, and OSU are the only teams in Omaha that can hit on par with Wake. It's third starter Jackson Kowar who the Gators need to come into his own in Omaha. He has to find a away to avoid his first inning jitters and start games off stronger. Florida doesn't have the team hitting and run scoring potential to come back from an early game deficit against the pitching they will face in Omaha. TCU, Oregon State, Louisville, LSU and Fullerton all have some serious front line arms. If Kowar get through unscathed in the first few innings of his start, my confidence in the Gators' chances will go up considerably. All that being said, middle relief pitching might end up being UF's make or break factor. It's almost a given in Omaha, in one of your first two games you have to go to the bullpen earlier than you want because it's so important to stay in the winner's bracket. So all eyes on you Tyler Dyson. Can you repeat what you did in the Super Regional? Dyson is the only middle reliever we have who has demonstrated the "stuff" to slow down some of the mashers from OSU, Louisvile or LSU. Some of the other middle relief arms can get the Gators some outs with the proper lefty/righty matchups, but Dyson is the only one who can carry the team many innings and set it up for strong closer Michael Byrne.
6. But the million dollar question for UF in Omaha is, will they finally hit? And I mean hit and hit with some consistency. Not scurry for a few runs here and a JJ Schwarz homer there. Florida has to put the bat on the ball and score some runs in bunches. Relying on winning one-run games against mid-pack SEC teams, or USF in the regional is good, but to win it all UF has to finally turn on some bigger sticks. Extra base power has to come from somewhere other than Schwarz. I guaran-damn-tee you every pitching coach of every team still alive is making plans to pitch around JJ in Omaha. Even though it's been an up and down season for JJ, he's the only player UF has who's demonstrated a significant power threat all season. Veterans like India and Rivera will have to flex some more of their muscle. Guthrie or Larson will have to get some extra base hits in the gaps. Langworthy or Hicks will have to shoot some balls down the line. And maybe O'Sullivan will take the shackles off Keenan Bell and let him get some significant at-bats and show off his raw power. Remember that's what Sully did last season with Danny Reyes down the stretch and he started mashing all the way to Omaha? By the way, what happened with Reyes this season, why did he leave the program? And outfielder Jeremy Vasquez the same question? Anyway, please Gators stop taking so many good pitches early in the count and put the ball in play ON THE GROUND!! Nobody on the roster is mechanically good enough for this team to hit all tournament long with 2-strike counts.
7. Did you notice three schools sent teams to both the CWS's in softball and baseball this year? They would be UF, LSU, and Texas A&M. And what conference are those schools in? Coincidence, I think not? What a hose job the SEC softballers got having all three league teams in the same bracket in Oklahoma City. At least in baseball it got split up some with LSU on the other side opposite UF and TAM in the same bracket in Omaha. On paper, the two brackets seem pretty even strength wise in Omaha even though UF has two other national seeds on their side. But, I'm very content Oregon State and LSU are on the other side, and we won't have to face them until the best of three championship series provided we make it.
8. I really hope for a deep run in Omaha this year for UF. Last year's results left a very sour taste in my mouth. With a starting staff of Logan Shore, AJ Puk, Dane Dunning, and Alex Faedo along with Shaun Anderson coming out of the bullpen we should have won it all, or at least got to the final two in 2016. We don't have nearly that talented or experienced of a pitching staff this year, nor do we have anywhere near the offensive fire power of last season. Getting to Omaha with this team's overall roster is probably O'Sullivan's best coaching season at UF. My best analysis says we don't have enough horses to win it all, but I think with some continued solid front line pitching and more timely hitting we can get to the championship series. Then with a two out of three final, who knows what UF can scrape together - just like they did against Wake Forest in the Super. One thing I would absolutely love to see is at about 5:30pm on Monday the 19th, FSU boards the bus after yet another Omaha 0-2 and BBQ.
GO GATORS!
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