this year:

I believe the reasons are plentiful and compelling.  Failing a rash of injuries or other unforeseeable fallout, expect this year’s Gators to return UF Football to the level of success and prominence we’ve grown accustomed to.

1) First, let’s look at last year’s team. 
Don’t for a minute think that because the final record read FIVE LOSSES that this is some kind of major reclamation project of a program in shambles.

Look back at the record of 7-4. (I’m not including the bowl game.  It’s meaningless and irrelevant since half our team was sick and they had no coach in place.)  Of the 4 losses, all 4 were by 7 points or less, and 3 of those happened in the final minute or so.  Without yet getting into matters of talent, toughness or coaching (those will follow), it’s clear to see that the Gators came very very close to having a much better record last year.

If just a few things had fallen our way or worked out differently, last year’s team could have won 9 or 10 games.  Even the most hardened, impartial observer would allow the UT and MSU games as best evidence, and admit that the 2004 Gators were an eyelash from going 9-2, at the very least.

So the first thing to realize is that this is a pretty good football team, one that has its nucleus returning.


1b)  Talent.  This team is loaded with it. 

Remember back in April when no Gator players were taken in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft? What a sad statement about a program that clearly had hit the skids, right?  I look at it another way: if all our talent isn’t in the NFL, it must still be on campus.

And make no mistake, whichever, trite, exaggerative “cupboard” analogy you want to use and whichever of the two most-recent former UF coaches you choose to canonize or vilify, the bottom line is this: It’s still the University of Florida, and we are absolutely stocked with top talent at a great many positions.

Anywhere from 12 to 15 Gators who will see action this year will play in the NFL.  You know all the names, I won’t list them here.  But I will promise that at least 1 will go no later than the 2^nd round for each of the next few years.

Oh, and the last time we didn’t have anyone drafted as high as round 2?  1996.  Hmmm.


2) Coaching/Finishing.

I’m just as big a Meyer fan as anyone, and am completely convinced that our program is on the verge of a period of sustained success much like the 1990s.  All the brilliant methods and motivations and upgrades will continue to pay off long-term, there can be no doubt.

But I’m here to tell you why Urban Meyer will get it done (increase our Ws to 10+ THIS year) right away, in 2005.

Simply put, it’s what he does.  When Meyer goes to a program, he improves it, dramatically…immediately.

The year before Coach Meyer arrived at Bowling Green, They’d gone 2-9, including 1-5 in games decided by 7 points or less. In 2001, his very first year, they went 8-3, including 3-2 in the close ones.  That’s a 6-win improvement in the first year, and a noticeable change at gut-check time! 

In 2002 at Utah, the year before Meyer took over, the Utes went 5-6, and just 2-4 in 7-point games.

The next year, Utah improved to 10-2, with a 5-1 slate in close games.  5-game uptick, and much of it in the close ones.

By the way, in his second year at both schools, the team’s record continued to improve, as did their record in close games.  (Actually, Utah didn’t have any such games in 2004, and I’ll take that any day.)

So, Meyer has clearly established that he has an immediate positive effect on “struggling” programs; ones that had had trouble winning the close games.  Programs where there was some talent in place, but they just hadn’t been able to come together, to close the deal.

Sound like anybody we know?  For three years now, we’ve all been constantly disappointed at the end, completely frustrated at unthinkable coaching moves and bewildered by our team’s tendency to lose focus, stamina, and individual battles down the stretch.

That’s all changed now.  You know it, I know it, and most importantly our players know it.  Next to find out will be the opponents, and I’m telling you it’s gonna happen sooner rather than later.

3) The Schedule.

”Whoa, kemosabe!  I was with you through all the ‘players and coaching’ stuff, but did I really just see you say that a University of Florida football schedule could be considered favorable…to the Gators??”
 

Yes, I really think so.  Compared to the usual impossible gauntlet we face annually, I believe this year’s slate potentially sets up very nicely for our guys, with few instances of back-to-back heavy lifting.

The first tough test is hosting UT, and though the Vols have the week off prior, we do get the home advantage, and Tennessee stays on the road to visit LSU afterwards, so I think UT knows what a mountain it has to climb. BTW, I’ll go on record right now and say that LSU will beat UT.  Whether UF beats the Vols or not, they’ll take enough out of them that LSU will cruise at home the week after.

Sept 24 the Gators visit Kentucky for a respite before heading to Alabama Oct 1^st.  Right now I believe Bama is overrated – we’ll find out soon enough.

UF then returns home for some payback with Miss State, before visiting LSU.  I believe this is the toughest game on the schedule, but hey, they’ve got a new coach too, and until we actually lose in BR I’ll consider UF to have the advantage.

Oct 22 is the week before the WLOCP. UGA hosts Arkansas while the Gators take the week (after LSU) off.  History tells us to feel very good about that bit of scheduling.

Nov 5^th brings the Gators back home to host Vandy, a relative off-week before heading to Columbia for what no doubt will be an interesting game at So. Car.  I have no fears of losing this game.  Not this year.
It may well end up being an emotional grinder, but it will be a win.

A final week off before coming home to beat FSU.  Book it.

All in all, the pacing and venues of this schedule are all very favorable IMO.  With a new offense probably yet to jell in the early-season, I’m very wary of the UT game, but I’m really glad we have this one at home.


4)Intangibles/History

In 4 of the last 5 seasons, a 5-loss team has come back to win 13 games the next year, so a major leap from the fringes of the polls to the top of the heap (sorry, AU) is not only not unprecedented, but actually a very regular and recurring pattern.

2004 AU: 13-0
2003: 8-5

2003 LSU 13-1
2002: 8-5

2002 OSU: 14-0
2001: 7-5

2000 OU: 13-0
1999: 7-5

In each of the last 2 seasons it’s been an SEC team making that leap – and this is not even counting the 2002 UGA team that won 13 after going 8-4 in 2001 -  all in a conference that has already established a recent history of spreading national championships among its teams, with 4 different MNC programs in 11 years.

So, given that there is historically and statistically a very good chance of a 5-loss 2004 team having a GREAT year this year, and given the SEC’s predominance in such things. . .who do you think it’s going to be this year?

Why not Florida?  Who is better primed, more loaded, better-coached, and more DUE for such a breakout?

Now, a couple of realistic reminders remain, that we are dangerously thin at LB, at least to start, and of course a rash of injuries will hurt any team, not just ours.  We are also breaking in not only a new HC but a new OC as well as a new offense, so growing pains are to be expected.  This is why I fear the UT game perhaps the most, coming as early as it does, and as often as it seems to come down to (gulp) kicking.

However, if we stay pretty healthy, get a couple bounces and keep putting the ball into the hands of guys who actually make plays, I really like this team’s chances of winning not only 10 games, but possibly 2 or 3 more.

But I PROMISE you we’ll win 10.  In fact, I’ll stake my reputation as HaileGator’s “Poster Who Knows The Least About Football On The Board” on it.  J  Good times are straight ahead, Gator fans…real good times.